Data Talks

1/ New peer-reviewed:
“The Covid-19 lesson from Sweden: Don’t lock down”

“Finland & Norway, w/ lowest avg lockdown rate show lowest excess mortality—displaying a negative excess mortality rate. Sweden.. has one of lowest cumulative excess mortality rates”https://t.co/Kyx3MXMuJD

— Kulvinder Kaur MD (@dockaurG) March 4, 2024

 

Winter Window by Kaoru Yamada

Winter Window by Kaoru Yamada 

Click to enlarge.

The easy answer? Cultivate values and behaviors.

From Social Movements and Public Opinion in the United States by Amory Gethin & Vincent Pons.  From the Abstract.

Recent social movements stand out by their spontaneous nature and lack of stable leadership, raising doubts on their ability to generate political change. This article provides systematic evidence on the effects of protests on public opinion and political attitudes. Drawing on a database covering the quasi-universe of protests held in the United States, we identify 14 social movements that took place from 2017 to 2022, covering topics related to environmental protection, gender equality, gun control, immigration, national and international politics, and racial issues. We use Twitter data, Google search volumes, and high-frequency surveys to track the evolution of online interest, policy views, and vote intentions before and after the outset of each movement. Combining national-level event studies with difference-in-differences designs exploiting variation in local protest intensity, we find that protests generate substantial internet activity but have limited effects on political attitudes. Except for the Black Lives Matter protests following the death of George Floyd, which shifted views on racial discrimination and increased votes for the Democrats, we estimate precise null effects of protests on public opinion and electoral behavior.

So protests generate zero impact on public opinion.  And I suspect the one exception (BLM) is just a lag issue.  BLM => Police Defunding => Rising Crime => Restoration of Policing.  

A couple of days ago I posted $11 billion spent (some of it being directly from taxes and most of it being indirectly from taxes) on helping 83,000 people with no measurable benefits achieved.   Social policies almost always fail, fail expensively, and many catastrophically.  

So the research indicates

Social movements don't change anything.

Social policies don't change anything.

That overstates it a bit.  But perhaps not by too much.  

Perhaps Heraclitus (2,500 years ago) had it right all along.

Character is destiny.

Again, overstating it a bit.  But perhaps not by too much.

You want progress.  Forget teachable moments, fundamental transformations, silver bullet policies, national conversations, and mass movements.  Cultivate values and behaviors.  

Language of a place and time

From Gaudy Night by Dorothy L. Sayers.  Page 50.  I attended a small English boarding school (and an American one) and there is definitely a unique language of things and places.  

Sunday lunch in Hall was a casual affair.

[snip]

Harriet, having seized a plate of cold ham for herself, looked round for a lunch partner, and was thankful to see Phoebe Tucker just come in and being helped by the attendant scout to a portion of cold roast beef. 

[snip]

From there they commanded the whole room, including the High Table itself and the row of serving-hatches. 

Hall - Dining hall but usually much more antique and formal than in the US.  It is place where assemblies might be held as well as just dining.  Dining Hall in American prep schools is usually pretty utilitarian.  You eat there.  Whereas Hall in English schools often has a connotation of community.  

Scout - I think this might be Oxford specific.  A servant, usually involved in cleaning but apparently covering serving meals as well as odd jobs around the campus.

High Table - The table where the dons, tutors, and administrators (and their guests dine).  Usually at the top of the hall and perpendicular to the tables used by students.

History

There's Japanese data on cherry tree blossoming stretching back to 812. Some commitment. pic.twitter.com/YdQx4HepYf

— Stefan Schubert (@StefanFSchubert) March 6, 2024

 

 

An Insight

Literally just apply for jobs that match your credentials.

Off of twitter, almost no one has a problem with "diversity" - the existence of Black and Asian executives - as vs affirmative action. https://t.co/c6vwnJGeTn

— Wilfred Reilly (@wil_da_beast630) March 4, 2024

 

I see wonderful things

Population density across the world, visualized in 3D

[🎞️ Tyler Morgan-Wall]pic.twitter.com/kkpgBIZgD6

— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) March 4, 2024

 

Offbeat Humor

Everything you do comes back to you pic.twitter.com/8ppOjNlaqr

— Historic Vids (@historyinmemes) March 6, 2024

 

Data Talks

Some therapies seem to make things worse rather than better, at least for some people. https://t.co/wrPTlbamwB pic.twitter.com/AEPPM8lEkr

— Steve Stewart-Williams (@SteveStuWill) March 3, 2024

 

Trees, 1963 by S. R. Badmin

Trees, 1963 by S. R. Badmin

Click to enlarge.